Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Builders Losing Money

From today's Tampa Tribune, more bad news from the homebuilding industry.

'U.S. - home builders, stuck with more than 500,000 unsold houses, may report the lowest earnings in five years because a rebound in the real estate market is too little too late to save 2007 sales.

Net income at D.R. Horton Inc., the industry's largest company, may plunge 60 percent in fiscal 2007 to $498 million, the worst since 2002 when the domestic economy was recovering from the slowest growth in more than a decade. The average drop in annual profits at America's four biggest home builders probably will be 55 percent, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

"The demand side of the market is stabilizing, but it doesn't mean that all of a sudden construction is going to be off to the races," said Michael Darda, chief economist of MKM Partners in Greenwich, Conn. He cited a 3.4 percent gain in new-home sales in November from the previous month.

New-home sales fell 18 percent in 2006 to 1.05 million, the biggest contraction since 1990, after median prices rose 41 percent in five years, making them unaffordable for many buyers, said David Berson, an economist at Fannie Mae, the largest mortgage buyer.'

But there's light at the end of the tunnel. Well, at least according to these guys.

'Sales will rise to 946,000 homes at an annualized pace in the third quarter and gain until at least the second half of 2008 after falling to a five-year low of 942,000 in the second quarter, the Chicago-based National Association of Realtors said last week.

Freddie Mac, the second-biggest mortgage buyer, and Mortgage Bankers Association predict more housing demand in the second half of this year. The National Association of Home Builders in Washington projects new-home sales will gain in every quarter of 2007.'

Lennar, which made a BOATLOAD of money over the past 5 years, has a different take.

'Stuart Miller, chief executive officer of Miami-based Lennar, the fourth-biggest U.S. home builder, isn't as optimistic.

"Market conditions continued to weaken during the fourth quarter and we have not yet seen tangible evidence of a market recovery," Miller said on Jan. 2. Lennar reported its first loss in more than a decade in the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Nov. 30. Analysts believe Lennar's earnings will fall 51 percent in fiscal 2007.'

And remind us again - how has homebuilding affected overall economic growth in the US?

'New-home sales bottomed in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 970,000, sliding from an all-time high of 1.3 million in 2005's third quarter, Berson said. The construction slump helped to slow U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter to an annual rate of 1.6 percent, down from 5.6 percent in the 2006's first quarter, he said on Dec. 20.

Buyers canceled contracts to purchase homes at a record pace in the second half of 2006, swelling builders' inventories. Measured in terms of how long it would take to sell off the existing stock, inventory stood at 6.3 months in November, down from 7.2 months in July and up from 4.9 months a year ago, according to the Commerce Department.'

And my personal favorite: a tale of couple who smartly waited things out, and got a killer deal. My question is: could the price they paid still be undercut in years to come?

'That means buyers like David and Wendy Butler of Orlando are able to purchase an already-completed new home at a discount rather than ordering one and waiting for it to be built. During the five-year real estate boom that ended in 2006, that option was rare.

The Butlers are purchasing a four-bedroom, 3,700-square- foot house in Orlando built by Ashton Woods USA LLC for $545,000. The same home was listed at $768,000 three months ago, David Butler said. Nationally, the median home price probably will slide 5.4 percent in the current quarter to $231,700 from $244,800 a year ago, according to forecasts from Fannie Mae.


"People were saying the average homes in this neighborhood would be $1 million-plus, but there's so many homes on the market the prices have been tumbling," said David Butler, 45. "It's incredible really. All of a sudden, it's time to buy."'

I don't know why they titled this article, "Builders See Deep Losses In Spite Of Rebound". What rebound? To 1999 levels?


Full Article

125 comments:

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CRAZY G said...

Jerry!...You published it about Lennar Home Builders....
They had something like >$100/million LOSS, and had refused to give guidance for 2007....Also indicating times were TOUGH!!!!!!
'Stuart Miller, chief executive officer of Miami-based Lennar, the fourth-biggest U.S. home builder, isn't as optimistic.

"Market conditions continued to weaken during the fourth quarter and we have not yet seen tangible evidence of a market recovery," Miller said on Jan. 2. Lennar reported its first loss in more than a decade in the fiscal fourth quarter, which ended Nov. 30. Analysts believe Lennar's earnings will fall 51 percent in fiscal 2007.'

==================================
Well, Jerry...how bad can things get???
The stock went up in price this morning $2.27 [?]..>5% increase....

Looks to me, like we're all going to the poor house in our limo's

CRAZY G said...

Quickest way to get rid of those UNWANTED Mexicans, is DON'T PAY THEM!!!! Well here you go!!!
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Builder leaves subcontractors unpaid

Tradesmen say they're owed more than $1 million


Imagine hiring a dozen crews to build at least two dozen homes and then running out of money before you can pay them for their services, and you can imagine the mess that Construction Compliance Inc. faces.

The company, which has some 90 active building permits in Charlotte County, has apparently been placed in financial limbo after many of its subcontractors -- who claim they haven't been paid for some $1 million in work -- filed liens against the homebuyers

http://www.sun-herald.com/Newsstory.cfm?pubdate=011507&story=tp2ch7.htm&folder=NewsArchive2

===================================

Probably didn't have to charge them a exit fee either???

Anonymous said...

I read that anything under 1 million annualized is considered a *really*, *really*, bad market. Looks like they are predicting it for the next 2 years.

LOL, realtors are believing their own hype: realtor sentiment rose to 35 from 33 expected. As a group they have deluded themselves into believing that 2007 is the year prices start going up again.

lizziebeth said...

The fact that so many realtors are holding multiple properties, gives them absolutely no credibility! Quite frankly, the industry is toast!!! Let them believe their hype! They had there day and now it's over!

Lizziebeth said...

SKB,

I bet the builder that called will be out of business by summer! They are so desperate! Greed has turned to desperation! It's nice to see them squirm. Two years ago they made me feel like a cheap, ignorant homebuyer. Like something was wrong with me! Ha! I was right!

There was a salesperson in a David Weekly model that gave me all the hype two years ago. I had recently seen an add for a tshirt that looked like the box of Mr. Bubbles. It said Take a bath in the real estate market with Mr. Housing bubble. *not affiliated with Mr. Internet Bubble. I laughed and told her about it. She didn't find it too amusing. Of course called it absolutely ridiculous. She was building a house in Lake Jovita located in Dade City. Ha! That place is screwed! Middle of nowhere! They deserve what they get. Happy renting!!!!

lizziebeth said...

Question for those who know, Crazy don't bother replying, I won't read it.

If one is renting a home from a FB, they can't cover their huge carrying costs, go into foreclosure.... What happens to the renter. Is there a set amount of time the renter has to vacate?

CRAZY G said...

Lizzie "Breath" reply:

I don't like talking to people with halatosis....
I always want to tell them to brush their tongue, because of the foul thing that comes out of THERE

SKB said...

"If one is renting a home from a FB, they can't cover their huge carrying costs, go into foreclosure.... What happens to the renter. Is there a set amount of time the renter has to vacate??

Lizzie,
I read (I am not sure if this applies to all States) that the mortgage provider has to honor the lease agreement.

:)

lizziebeth said...

Thanks SKB!

Hey jerry, I know Ben has been known to delete posts from dreadful posters. You may want to consider deleting some. There is no reason you aren't getting 100+ hits a day on this blog other than one Crazy Idiot!

striker said...

I only come here to read crazy's comments, I get a good chuckle every now and then.

lizziebeth said...

Striker,

Some are funny, some of his posts are informative while others are plain rude! I don't think that Jerry's goal was to have people check in to read some of Crazy's rants. But then again, if it was then adios Florida Paradise Lost!

CRAZY G said...

lizziebeth said...
Striker,

Some are funny, some of his posts are informative while others are plain rude! I don't think that Jerry's goal was to have people check in to read some of Crazy's rants. But then again, if it was then adios Florida Paradise Lost!
===================================

""AGREED"""

You've got to save 'CRAZY' from himself....otherwise he could bring down the whole State of Florida....

Talk about being "paranoid", that someones out to get you....
IT'S WONDERFUL, TO KNOW WHO YOUR ENEMIES ARE ARE!!!!

>>>THE WHOLE STATE OF FLORIDA!!<<<

""YIKES!!!""""

CRAZY G said...

>>KNOWLEDGE IS POWER<<<

>>WHILE IGNORANCE BREEDS CONTEMPT<<

==================================
lizziebeth said...
If one is renting a home from a FB, they can't cover their huge carrying costs, go into foreclosure.... What happens to the renter. Is there a set amount of time the renter has to vacate?
=================================

CRAZY SAYS;

The length of the lease, if it's registered, or 30 days 'if' it's month to month!!!

YUUKK!!!!

SKB said...

Good point Lizzie.

It seems that Crazy g is just itching to always pick a fight.
I have never met anyone that fights with people that share the same opinion as they do. It just doesn't make any sense at all. I can only imagine what it would be like if we had some non bubble posters posting here.
He is ruining this site and it should not be tolerated by Jerry for all of the hard work he has been putting into this site.
This site is in my opinion the very best Florida housing bubble blog. Saying that, it is also slowest one for posting by anyone other than crazy g and his ratings. I am confident that this lack of interest in posting is due to Crazy g's blatant disregard of internet decorum and his apparent self-importance and troll like behavior.


Gerry, It seems to me that you really should have some blogging rules set up on this site. Here are a few suggestions:

1. Don't flame, attack, berate, or otherwise be disrespectful to anybody else on the forums. We're all friends here, and we don't need your ill will.

2. Before you post: Before posting, please ask yourself the following question: "Am I making a post which is either funny, informative, or interesting on any level?" If you can answer "yes" to this, then please post. If you cannot, then refrain from posting.

3.Before you reply: Before replying, please ask yourself the following question: "Does my reply offer any significant advice or help contribute to the conversation in any fashion?" If you can answer "yes" to this, then please reply. If you cannot, then please refrain from replying.

Jerry, you do not seem to have a moderator, or even an e- mail link to contact you in the event that things get out of hand on this site. It would be great if you could add this. If you need suggestions I elect Lizziebeth to be a moderator if she has the time for it. I would also graciously extend my help in this regard as well.

We all appreciate your time researching and posting this valuable information. This information is key to all of us that have a tremendous concern for the future of our Country and the affordability of a basic fundamental like housing. Years down the road when this entire mess has finally lived itself out, we will remember it well. We will owe a debt of gratitude for all of the information on the internet that helped us to prevent financial mistakes.

SKB

Anonymous said...

I think Crazy G is probably an OK guy; however, he really needs to learn some basic internet manners.

It is usually OK to rant and/or share opinions in an expressive manner. That's the beauty of blogs. But often he just plain insults people for no apparent reason. Very odd behavior.

I don't know if he is mentally unstable or just enjoys provoking people to get an arguement going. Either way it is distracting to the overall enjoyment of the blog.

Dragasoni said...

So, the Butler's think they got themselves a deal? I'm not so sure, since the market continues to fall.

I remember the good ol' days (7 years ago) when renting was HIGHER than the cost of ownership! It's amazing how that completely fliped.

I think the tables are turning again, and that might be true again. Just look at the rentals available here in Tampa Bay. You can rent a house for pennies on the dollar. I'm seeing nice 4 bed 3 bath homes for rent around $1,300 a month. The onwership cost on that home would be nearly triple. And since these home are only 1-3 years old, we all know the owners are taking a big hit on them, as far as rent goes.

Home prices will continue to fall through 2009, and homes will be affordable again.

-Dragasoni-

CRAZY G said...

>>>""IF"", you have any DOUBT about how stupid people are; read this article in the Palm Beach Post about what the people are 'demanding' from the politicans.....<<<<

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/state/epaper/2007/01/18/s1a_insure_0118.html

=================================

The "UNDERTONE" from the politicans, is that they know they are NOT doing the correct thing, but they have to placate, the voters...
STUPID PEOPLE DEMANDING STUPID THINGS....

Citizens already has 1/3 of all policies in Florida...."THEY" supposedly want to keep Citizens
the insurer of last resort, but they are going to lower the rates, and "DEMAND", that cherry-picking coverage be stopped.....

One politican claimed that Citizens may in fact be the largest, "BUT" it was the most POORLY RUN!!!!
||||DO YOU THINK FOR ONE MINUTE THAT THE PEOPLE POSTING HERE ABOUT THE ""INSURANCE LOBBY"" ARE ANY SMARTER THAN THE PEOPLE ""DEMANDING"" THE POlITICANS ""DO"" SOMETHING|||

Crazy; goes on record to say that the politicans are NOT, going to make things better for you.....they are going to make things worse!!!

CRAZY G said...

The Athenians held a trial for Socrates, because he was 'critical' of their motives and actions....
Some posters out there find Crazy's actions abhorant, but then again, it's hard to face criticism & ridicule of your actions............
Posters here have blamed the "IL", numerous times....
Instead of focusing outward, they should focus inward.....
and ask themselves, what they can do to save themselves, rather than have a politican attempt to do it for them!!!

YOU'VE HEARD ""NUMEROUS"" TIMES IN THE LAST FEW DAYS...."PASS A LAW" agsinst aliens, ...Jerry help me, he called me a name....
Gettin rid of Socrates, did not solve Athens problems....Getting rid of Crazy, is NOT going to solve your ""PARADISE LOST " problem

CRAZY G said...

Goldman-Sachs weights-in with a comment about US housing market!!!
==================================

US housing bust getting worse, warns Goldman
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 1:16am GMT 16/01/2007

Americans have shown a complete lack of self-control. The personal savings rate is at its lowest point ever, and has actually been negative since April 2005.

"We believe that housing will soon become the proverbial 'straw that breaks the camel's back'," said David Kostin, the investment bank's US strategist

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/01/15/bcngold115.xml

CRAZY G said...

December data from the Daytona Beach Realtors Assoc...

Total House/Condo listings 6535 units

Total Sales [closed]..262 units

Months Supply @ current absorption rate....24 months

A casual review of the data, indicates that sales, and listing have "leveled-off"....Numbers are neither increasing nor decreasing....and for the moment a 'status quo' has taken over the market.....

CRAZY G said...

Are you worried that you can't find the 'right' house, from the existing over-supply????.....
Not to worry!!!! They are building you MORE!!!
==================================

AP
Housing Construction Rises for 2nd Month
Thursday January 18, 8:40 am ET
Housing Construction Rises for 2nd Straight Month in December


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Construction of new homes rose for a second consecutive month in December, raising hopes that the severe slump in housing may be leveling off.
The Commerce Department reported Thursday that housing construction rose 4.5 percent in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.642 million units.

Analysts cautioned that the December figure could be overstating the extent of the rebound since it was probably influenced by warmer-than-normal weather last month.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070118/housing_construction.html?.v=2
===================================

ARE THESE GUYS 'SMART' OR WHAT......
OLD BUSINESS ADTAGE...FIND A NEED AND FILL IT......WE "NEED"" A BETTER SELECTION...."NOW""

FL - Paradise Lost said...

I'm seeing some excellent posts from all of our readers here, and I realize some are taking the opportunity to make snide remarks about one another.

Please be polite, and just ignore any comments directed at or about you. Truly, in this situation, ignorance is the best policy. Believe me: I've received plenty of hate-mail for my views here, and I am polite as always in my replies.

Remember that we're all in the same mind-set: this state has some serious issues on it's plate, and they are all a direct result of extremely overpriced housing.

I could put the filter on, but as the famous quote (was it Franklin or Paine or someone else?)(and I'm paraphrasing here) goes:

"Those who want a reduction of freedom for additional security deserves neither."

So, keep on, keepin' on. And play nice.

- Jerry

Anonymous said...

Jerry,

I think you are missing the point.

If you want this blog to be taken seriously you need to get rid of that CrazyG or manage his comments. It's nothing personal against CrazyG, and it's just that simple.

CrazyG, you can create your own blog at blogspot.com and develop your own following.

Yeah, yeah, I realize nothing will be done. That's why I don't come back very often, and when I do I rarely bother reading the comments. I'm sure I'm not the only one...

Regards

CRAZY G said...

It was Thomas Jefferson, and I recited to TSA guard at the DAB airport the other day, as I was being disrobed beause my hip replacement set-off the alarms....

''THOSE WHO WOULD SACRIFICE THEIR LIBERTY, FOR SECURITY, DESERVE NEITHER THE LIBERTY NOR SECURITY""

Looking at the guard....I asked him poigantly....DID I DESERVE THIS???

CRAZY G said...

Anonymous said...
I think you are missing the point.
===================================

Is the point that you're not coming back as long as Crazy posts
research articles about the market...?????
How many other people post 'real' articles????
And since you're anonymous, we really don't know who you are and what you stand for....do we!!!

This all could be a double sided ploy, created and perpetrated by Crazy himself??? To gain sympathy, for his wayward ways???

The radio program from 50 years ago.....""THE SHADOW""

""WHO KNOWS WHAT EVIL LURKS IN THE HEARTS OF MEN......THE SHADOW KNOWS!!!! hhhhhaaaaa!!!

Anonymous said...

Well so far, in one thread, Crazy G has compared himself with Socrates, Thomas Jefferson, and "The Shadow".

I think it is safe to say that no other Florida RE Blog has this depth of wisdom contributing to its knowledge base.

We all need to look a little deeper in the sage words of this misunderstood prophet.

CRAZY G said...

Anonymous said; Reply
===================================

Let's try a little Ben Franklin, if those aren't good enough!!!!

"In other men we faults can spy,
And blame the mote that dims their eye,
Each little speck and blemish find,
To our own stronger errors blind"

OR

The heart of a fool is in his mouth, But the mouth of a wise man is in his heart...

================================

I carry NO grudge against Mexicans, and don't want people jailed for employing them....

BUT, it bothers me, to believe, that you can pass laws to make companies, 'want' to do business with you, at legislated rates.....

You may NOT like my opinions, but I do not hide behind the badge of anonymity...[sniping cowards]

Anonymous said...

13 posts by Crazy on one thread is to much to take. Sorry Jerry I have tried to keep up w/ this blog, but enough is enough.

Good luck, I will not be returning.

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