Friday, February 09, 2007

A Cautionary Flipper Tale

Here now another great story- about a recent emigree who got into the same old flipping mode as many others did in this state. The thing was, he was very experienced at it, and just got a little too carried away. From CNN/Money.

'NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Dave Corey has been flipping houses on the side for nearly 30 years, but the latest slump in the real estate market is taking its toll.

His latest struggle: Unloading a ranch in Ocala, Fla., with three bedrooms, two baths and a two-car garage.

He thought it would be a quick buy, rehab and sell transaction. Instead, it's been buy, rehab...and sit. For 10 months.

Before moving to Florida in the early 2000s, Corey's main income came from his used Saab sales and service dealership in Vermont. He sold out and moved south where he earned good money flipping houses at the height of the boom.

"I made $80,000 in the first four months of 2005 and didn't kill myself [working too hard]," he says.'

But then, the music stopped. And then the BIG revelation: Most of the buyers during the boom were OTHER Flippers! Truly shocking, I say.

'A few years ago, Ocala, a small (under 50,000 population) central Florida city, was a hot spot for investors, mainly Northerners, according to Corey. Those buyers have flown back north. "I don't see where any new investors are coming in," he says.'

Now it sounds like the guy knew what he was doing - buying really bad properties and fixing them up. After all, he's been doing this for 3 decades.

'Corey's plan had been to follow the strategy honed in Vermont. Describing himself as a "hands-on guy," Corey looks for places that are structurally sound but in some stage of disrepair or ones that need an upgrade. Houses owned by estates are often good, because the heirs don't want to live there; they just want to get the money out of the property quickly.

Sometimes, the places look like bombs went off in them.

"I took my wife, Sharon, to one of the first houses I bought down here [in Florida]," says Corey. "She went in and said, 'Oh gosh. Let's get out of here.'"

Corey had to convince her that was just what he wanted; a place that looked terrible but that had a good roof and a solid foundation.'

But it appears he didn't follow his own methodology - instead he got caught up in the mania and overpaid for his last investment - the house in question won't be worth what he paid for AT LEAST a decade or more. Based on history, the place is worth about $100K right now. Bad, bad decision - on the price paid and on the timing.

'After paying $146,000 in January of 2006, he's now out of pocket $160,000 including closing costs and renovations, he said. The list price of $178,900 has drawn zero interest. '

At least I'll give him credit for admitting his failure to the national media. When you see experienced veterans of the housing market get burned like this, just imagine what it's like for all the amateur investors out there, who bought in 2004-2006. It's an ugly scene, and we're only in Act I of this tragedy.


Oh, and before I forget: this week celebrates the 6th Month Anniversary of Florida - Paradise Lost. Thanks to all the posters and readers. We'll keep up the good fight.

39 comments:

sandi said...

Thanks, Jerry - 6 months and counting...I'll be here!

jayz said...

Some say dolphin meat is tasty!

(sick, i know)

Anonymous said...

Oooooh - that is in bad "taste".

But I like your reference to flipper!

Bottom line - this guy made plenty of money prior to this SNAFU house purchase - otherwise he wouldn't be broadcasting his troubles.

Still, who in their right mind would borrow anywhere NEAR his asking price for a dink-ass starter?

CRAZY G said...

Get out the receipe book, and hurry up, because all the turkeys are coming home to roost..
|||So says Fed Govnr Poole|||
===================================

Fed's Poole Says Risky Mortgage Lending `Coming Home to Roost'

By Craig Torres and Anthony Massucci

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said weak lending standards and a race for fees are probably behind some of the rising defaults on mortgages to high-risk borrowers.

``What I think happened to excess is that many companies made too many loans that were poorly documented and now those are coming home to roost as the mortgage interest rates went up,'' Poole told reporters after a speech in St. Louis
==============================
ALSO note that Fed Govnr Bies is quiting....
The National Inquirer, wants to know if she is jumping ship, before it sinks?????

crazy g said...

"""""OOOHHH BOY,,,,HERE,,,,WE,,,GO"""

>>>>THE BLAME GAME HAS STARTED<<<<

>>>>THE VERDICT IS IN AND WE NOW KNOW WHO TO BLAME<<<<<

READ FOR YOURSELF, THEN YOU'LL KNOW
================================

Buyers, sellers to blame for slump
Holding out for better deals, high prices hurt housing market
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register
California's housing slump resulted in part from conflicting expectations of buyers holding out for better deals and sellers still seeking a premium for their homes, a state Realtors group concluded.

Higher interest rates and low affordability are among the main reasons for the slowdown last year, the California Association of Realtors said in its 2006 "State of the California Housing Market" report, released Tuesday.

The report said the robust economy, a growing population and low interest rates by historic standards should have kept the housing market humming.

Instead, the statewide median price ended up just 2 percent higher last year than the year before, the report said.

Market psychology, rising interest rates and high home prices created "a perfect storm" that triggered a slowdown.

The report said a wedge developed between buyer and seller, caused by buyers waiting for prices to come down as sellers continued holding out for the same premiums that homes fetched in prior years

CRAZY G said...

HERE YOU GO.....READ AND WEEP.....
THE VERY PEOPLE WHO HAVE CREATED THIS WHOLE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE MESS, ARE NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE LEAVE OF IT!!!!

YES!!!! The rats are abondoning ship!!!!

THEY WANT ""NO"" PART OF IT, SO IT'S 'OSTA LA VISTA BABY'!!!
================================

Fed Reserve's Bies, policy centrist, to step down March 30
Submitted by cpowell on Fri, 2007-02-09 23:25. Section: Daily Dispatches
By David Lawder
Reuters
via Yahoo News
Friday, February 9, 2007

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070209/bs_nm/usa_fed_bies_dc

U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies, a banking expert and monetary-policy centrist, will step down on March 30, the central bank said on Friday, marking the third top Fed official to announce a departure this year.

Bies, who has been a member of the Fed's Board of Governors since December 2001, does not plan to attend the March 20-21 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed said -- a customary practice for departing Fed board members.

Bies, 59, was appointed by President George W. Bush to a full term that was due to end January 31, 2012. The Fed said she plans to spend more time with her family

==================================

>>>>MIND YOU!!!! THE THIRD ONE THIS YEAR<<<<

AN ILL-WIND BLOWS FROM THE FED, AND IT'S STENCH IS PERMEATEING THE COUNTRY

CRAZY G said...

WELL!!! BACK TO THE FUTURE SO TO SPEAK!!!

IT'S BEEN SEVERAL WEEKS, SINCE GOVERNOR CRIST AND THE LEGISLATURE HAVE CONVINED, AND SET SOME NEW LAWS FOR INSURANCE.....

The ""ODD"" thing about it, is """THE DEAFENING SILENCE FROM THE INSURANCE COMPANIES"""

Well!!! HERE YOU GO!!!!!
================================


Insurer predicts swelling price tag for hurricanes

By THOMAS S. BROWN
Business Writer

DAYTONA BEACH -- When the next big hurricane hits Florida, property owners without any damage could be tagged with a $600-plus surcharge to pay the claims of coastal owners insured by the state, a Michigan insurance company warns.

Auto-Owners Insurance, a customer-owned company based in Lansing, Mich., issued the eye-popping figure in a Feb. 2 letter sent to agents instructing them not to accept any more new business for most of its Florida operations.

Auto-Owners and two affiliates, Owners Insurance and Southern-Owners, have about 2,200 customers in Volusia and Flagler counties, according to state regulators. Statewide, its 44,000 homeowner customers make up less than 1 percent of the market.

The company criticized the Florida legislature for expanding coverage by the state-run Citizens Property Insurance Corp. and canceling Citizens' rate increases even though the high-risk insurer already has a $175 million deficit. That's setting the stage for a financial collapse when the next major hurricane hits, the company said.

"In the event of a catastrophic hurricane, such as a 1-in-100-year storm . . . the additional average policy premium for our lines increases from $1,528 to an estimated $2,169," said Auto-Owners Chairman Roger Looyenga.

He said the increase would result from a huge 42 percent surcharge that Citizens would be forced to impose on all insurance companies in the state to pay its claims. In past hurricanes, Citizens has kept its statewide surcharges under 7 percent.

Auto-Owners' scenario is based on a hurricane doing $100 billion in damage in Florida, which has never happened. However, company officials contend such an event is conceivable if a hurricane devastates several coastal counties. Hurricane Andrew, which stayed to the south of Miami, did about $20 billion in damage.

A spokesman for the state Office of Insurance Regulation said agency officials were familiar with Auto-Owners' letter but were unavailable for comment.
==================================

>>>BOTTOM LINE IS, IT'S GOING TO COST YOU IN THE END<<<<

CRAZY G said...

PEOPLE ARE ABOLUTELY STUPID.....I MEAN D'F'K STUPID.....

A story in the Wall street Journal, about a guy in Palm Beach County, that I checked out....

So the guy buys a house from a flipper....flipper paid $264K...Antionio Papa, turns around,[the same month] and pays $369K...takes out a $295K ""pay option mortgage"" @ 1%....several month later it's upto 5.6%...now 7.5% with a prepayment penalty

>>>HE'S COMPLAINING ABOUT THE COSTS??<<<<

SOMEBODY, PLEASE WRITE THIS GUY A LETTER AND TELL HIM HE DESIRES TO LOOSE HIS MONEY.....
=================================

Antonio Papa, a construction worker, took out an option ARM with a 1% introductory rate in 2005 on a second home he owns in Jupiter, Fla. The rate jumped to 5.6% in September 2005 and has since climbed to 7.5%. "I was looking to refinance to have more stability," he says. He has decided to hold off because his option ARM carries a prepayment penalty that would force him to pay six months' of interest if he refinances within the first three years. Mortgage brokers often receive higher payouts for putting borrowers into a loan with a prepayment penalty, says Sandra Barrett, a loan officer in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla., who was working with Mr. Papa.

Prepayment penalties are most common with option ARMs and loans made to borrowers with scuffed credit. Some 84% of option ARM loans made last year carried a prepayment penalty, according to an analysis by UBS AG that looked at mortgages that were packaged into securities and sold to investors.

The challenges facing borrowers are becoming more apparent at a time when opportunities for refinancing are narrowing. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped to their lowest levels in 14 months in December, but have recently drifted higher. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans currently average 6.45%, according to HSH Associates in Pompton Plains, N.J., up from 6.16% in early December.

"The best deals in going from an ARM to a fixed-rate are passing," says Doug Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. "If anything, rates are likely to move up rather than down."

Meanwhile, there are signs that some lenders are beginning to tighten their standards. The shift comes after a long period of liberal lending practices that made it easy for borrowers to finance 100% of a home's value or get a mortgage without documenting their income and assets.

=================================

So, this guy is paying nearly $32,000/yr in interest and taxes, with out principal, or hoa....maybe another +$10,000
Est. $3500-4000/mo on a second home.....

>>>>""FOR A GUY, WHO CLAIMS TO BE A CONSTRUCTION WORKER...NO LESS""<<

CRAZY G said...

Is it humanly possible, that ONE realtor has seen the 'light'....
===================================

Greg Antonich, a broker with RE/MAX Realty in Daytona Beach and a former president of the Daytona Beach Area Association of Realtors, said real estate agents lately have been dealing with "real buyers" of existing homes, or people who plan to live in the homes rather than use them as investments.

"Buyers are buying what they can afford," Antonich said. "Homes in the $175,000 to $225,000 range are what's moving, primarily in nice, existing subdivisions in good areas where prices have receded to where they were a few years ago."

He cites areas such as Ormond Beach, Port Orange and Edgewater as prime examples of recent existing-home sales activity in East Volusia. DeLand fits the bill in West Volusia, he added.

"Flagler is different. What's moving is existing inventory of new products built before the fall in the market," Antonich said. "All that has to be absorbed before other things will sell, and then they have to be at attractive pricing."

Builders in Flagler County each have 30 to 40 "spec" houses -- with no buyers lined up before construction -- in the pipeline, he said.

"Hundreds of spec homes are moving, once incentives are added on," he said.

http://www.news-journalonline.com/NewsJournalOnline/Business/Headlines/bizREAL01BIZ021107.htm

CRAZY G said...

You gotta get the perspective of this.....

So, I was reading the Real Estate section this morning in the Sunday paper, and I notice an ad for "Extravaganza Open Houses" in our development......I commented to my wife, and that was basically all....
So, I had to go out to the store, and sure enough, I started noting all they open houses the were having....SSooo, I drove around on several of the streets and counted maybe 15-17 open houses.....
SSOO!!! Off to the store I went.....Coming back, while passing thru the gate, I mentioned to the Security Guard, ""Boy, you guys must be really busy today, with all the open houses""......

""HE rinkled up his nose, and nodded his head sideways""...saying ""NO""
I said ""Comeon!!!""
He said that he had been there since 2:30 p.m. [it was 3:45], and he had |||||| ONLY ONE ||||| visitor......
I said """Whatta mean"""

He Said: There are "85 NEW" houses for sale in here....."""WWOOOWWWW"""

That's on top of what the resale realtor told me, that she had 102 listing resales as of early January....

TOTAL OF 187 UNITS

Mind you now, this is a realatively large complex of maybe 1500 homes, priced from $200K to $2 Million....

===============================

HOW'S THAT FOR A PERSPECTIVE OF REALITY!!!!

CRAZY G said...

Remember a couple of months ago, when 'everybody' was complaining about the taxes, and Crazy said, TAXES ARE GOING UP...""NOT DOWN""

Well, it appears there is concern about where additional revenues may come from, since tax collections are DOWN
===================================

Village seeks new sources of revenue
By Lester J. Davis

Palm Beach Post Staff Writer

Monday, February 12, 2007

ROYAL PALM BEACH — The housing boom of the past couple of decades, which caused the village's population to nearly double, its coffers to swell and pristine parks to sprout, is officially over.

With its most lucrative revenue stream dried up, the village needs to find other sources of money to maintain services as well as its vast network of parks, according to the village's state-mandated update of its comprehensive plan.



"We need to have some innovative thinking on how to replace that revenue stream," Councilman Fred Pinto said.

The council should not "fall into the trap of just raising taxes to meet that need," Pinto said.

Raising taxes to help cushion any shortfall from a slowed housing market would be hard to sell to voters who have grown accustomed to low tax rates, Mayor David Lodwick said during a recent hearing.

"I don't like raising tax rates. Nobody sitting here does," Lodwick said. "I just have a lot of concern.

"We will continue to run lean. We will continue not to waste tax dollars."

But just how the village will do that is still under discussion.

Pinto said village officials plan to address the revenue issue during upcoming council hearings.

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