Thursday, February 08, 2007

More Negative Forecasts for Home Prices in 2007

The International Builder's Show is being held in Orlando this week, and it doesn't look extraordinarily bright for this year (which is already 10% complete - can you believe it?). From the Palm-Beach Herald,

' ORLANDO — The real estate market hasn't hit bottom yet, three of the nation's top housing economists told the world's largest building trade show Wednesday.

Always one of the International Builders Show's highlights, the annual economic forecast has featured the same trio of top housing analysts for the past few years: David Seiders, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders; and David Berson and Frank Nothaft, chief economists for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, respectively.

But this year's highly anticipated message was a sobering one: Home prices will continue to slide for the rest of 2007, Berson said. Still, he said the biggest price drops probably are over.

Nothaft predicted that the housing market will hit bottom the first half of this year, with a gradual improvement in the second half that will continue through 2008.'


I don't agree with the last statement - first it's still too far off for such a prediction. 2nd, in addition to the record # of homes for sale right now, 2.1 million of them are empty. Third, the REIC is experiencing record layoffs and job freezes - that's an entire segment of the economy that is shrivelling up faster by the day. Fourth, a trillion $ in mortgages are being reset this year, with record foreclosures expected. Add these facts, and it becomes intuitively obvious that a quick turn-around is not happening this year.

'"We're not at the trough yet for single-family home sales," Nothaft said, noting that home prices will have to fall further to burn through the current high levels of housing inventory. "We are still a few years away from obtaining the robust activity of 2005."

A few years? Maybe if you define "a few years" = "5-10 years".

That's not what the more than 100,000 home builders, Realtors and other industry representatives attending the four-day show at the Orange County Convention Center wanted to hear. But most acknowledge that today's near-record level of homes follows a five-year run-up in home prices, fueled by low mortgage rates and investor dollars.

Nowhere was that more true than in Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast. The median price of an existing single-family home in Palm Beach County soared to a peak of $421,500 in November 2005, plunged to $365,600 in October 2006 and ended the year at $368,200, according to the Florida Association of Realtors.'

And then this little gem about South Florida,

'But even as the housing market continues its slide this year, Palm Beach County and the rest of South Florida will fare better than other parts of the country, Berson said.

"You have a very large contingent of foreign investors from Europe and Latin America, and their goals are different," Berson said after his presentation on the economic panel.

"They invested as a way to hedge where they keep their money," Berson said. "If there's price weakness, they may not pull out as fast as domestic investors who are looking only for a good return."'

In other words, these foreign investors won't sell cheap, and that'll prop up the prices? Errrrrrrr.....!

Full Article

60 comments:

CRAZY G said...

Put the cards on the table here!!!

THE BANKS REALLY DON'T WANT THE DAMN HOUSE.....THEY WANT THEIR MONEY!!! ""IF"" THEY TAKE THE HOUSE BACK, IT'S JUST A LESSOR OF TWO EVILS, AND THEN THEY HAVE GOT THE UPKEEP, AND UNKNOWN RETRIEVAL/RECOURSE PRICE [aka sale price].....

We are coming into a very, very sticky time period, after June 1st, when the mortgages reset for some of these folks....

The 3rd & 4th quarters this year could witness some astounding events.....

Even Crazy G, can't besure what's really going to happen!!!

CRAZY G said...

SSOO!!! Almost every day you read the headline....
"""THE BUYERS HOLD THE UPPER HAND"""
Crazy says....That's a crock'o'chit...[aka...coc]

The buyers are EXHAUSTED, and nearly everybody that has the money and wants to buy one of them expensive McMansions already has....

IT'S NOT THAT THE BUYERS HAVE THE UPPER HAND, IT'S THAT THE SELLERS ARE SELLING INTO A NON-EXISTENT MARKET....""THERE AIN'T ONE NEARLY""

You can set the price at whatever you want, and it still ain't going to sell....so, who gives a $$hit....40-50% of the buyers from the last 2-3 years were flippers, who are still sitting on their inventory.....
==============================

“One Indication That Buyers Hold The Upper Hand”

The Seattle PI reports from Washington. “Seattle’s median home price in January was the lowest it has been in a year, according to statistics released Wednesday. The median price of $379,990 was down from $420,000 in December, according to the Northwest MLS.”

“A dip might help home shoppers such as Bryan Ruppert, who was at an open house in Wallingford. He said he started looking for homes online in June, before moving to Seattle. ‘The prices are just outrageous,’ Rupert said. The selection is good, he said, ‘if you can afford it.’”

“The Northwest MLS reported that Seattle had 20 percent more homes on the market in January than the month before and 30 percent more than January 2006.”

CRAZY G said...

Think of it this way!!!!

NEARLY 70% OF THE HOUSEHOLDS """ALREADY"" OWN HOMES..

SO, what are we shooting for, every man, woman, and child should own a house...300 million???

The market is satuarated...2.1 million empty houses.....highest ever.....

It's like how many cars in your driveway, or how many shirts in your closet....
"""THE MARKET IS SATURATED""

IT'S NON-EXISTENT and lowering interest rates wouldn't make a dimes worth of difference....

FL - Paradise Lost said...

Face it - the prices right now are still outrageous.

Paying $290K for a starter home in Orlando/Tampa/Palm Beach is like paying $35K for a Nissan Sentra.

Sure it's a nice basic car, but why buy one when the price will be $30K at the end of the year, $25K next year, and $18K in 2009.

Or better yet, move to GA/NC/SC/TN/etc... and get the $18K price right now.

Anonymous said...

They sure like that fantasy of the foreign investors just scooping up those miami condos. Not so. Most bought by local speculators--prices down 15% in one year and will go further. Not to worry, you will soon be able to get a Miami condo for half of what it was in 2005. Don't buy the eurpeans and rich south americans are linning up nonsense. Its the ol Miami promotion line--its a lie.

CRAZY G said...

Read this article out of the Dallas News....Inventory of 43,000 homes with median of price of $140k, and they still can't sell them....
================================
Buyer's market may loom as housing inventory rises again

12:00 AM CST on Friday, February 9, 2007
By STEVE BROWN / The Dallas Morning News
stevebrown@dallasnews.com

North Texas home sales started 2007 in the red.

Purchases of pre-owned homes fell 4 percent in January – continuing a string of losses started last spring. Pending sales were also down 1 percent.

No surprise then that the inventory of homes for sale has increased.

At the end of January there was almost a nine-month supply of pre-owned homes for sale in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, according to statistics released Thursday by the North Texas Real Estate Information System.

A six-month supply of houses is considered a balanced market. In December, there was just under a 6-month supply of homes listed for sale in the D-FW area.

Much of the increase was seasonal. January sales closings typically reflect homes that went under contract during the holidays when buyer traffic is traditionally low.

"Some may be seasonal, but I also suspect some is due to a real slowdown in the market," said Jim Gaines, a researcher with Texas A&M University's Real Estate Center. 'We need to see what the March, April and May period brings in terms of sales activity.

"If sales volume doesn't show marked improvement over last year, I suspect we'll see a very definite shift toward a buyer's market with longer sales times," he said.

Almost 43,000 pre-owned homes are on the market – 7 percent more than a year ago.

Median home sales prices in January were down 1 percent from a year ago to $139,950.

Condo sales and prices were also down last month. Sales fell 6 percent from January 2006 and median prices were off 2 percent.
==================================

The Crazy question of the day is:
How come there is such a big differential in median prices, between Dallas & West Palm [or all of Florida]????

sandi said...

That is amazing about the prices in DFW - though Texas is really much more unpleasant than Florida during the summer months. And they don't have waterfront in Dallas.

ft lauderdale said...

Right... and that is why inventory is going up and prices down in my area... The guy can say anything he wants, can't change reality, of course I still want to strangle him...

zippo said...

"You have a very large contingent of foreign investors from Europe and Latin America, and their goals are different," Berson said after his presentation on the economic panel.

"They invested as a way to hedge where they keep their money," Berson said. "If there's price weakness, they may not pull out as fast as domestic investors who are looking only for a good return."'


In other words, Europeans and Latin Americans like to invest in depreciating, money-losing assets. Unlike Americans. So y'all are fine down in S. FLA.

What a crock of bull$hit.

Anonymous said...

The really interesting thing is that if they are having problems in North Texas we in S fl are hosed. Yeah, we have waterfront but they have a large corporate sector (they have like 15 fortune 500 hqs, real ones!) and family incomes are much higher than S Fl. Low prices cuase they have no zoning and lots and lots of space. We are constrained by water and everglades. I will gladly suck it up and move to Dallas, pay 1/3 for housing and 1/2 for car insurance and make a 10% higher wage. No beach though, but just how much is that worth? WE have just as much inventory in So Fal and no real solid economy and much higer prices--its going to get really ugly.....

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